60 Years before Implementation!
Posted by keelynet on December 27, 2009
Why does it take so long, must we wait for the old guard to die off before incredible new technologies can be introduced and put into practical use?
SLD: The theme of our conversation seems to be one of man’s merging with his creations, resulting in the connectivity of everyone at some bizarre level – hardware being the commodity, software being the dynamic variable. How about other areas of technology, like biomedical?
Anders: We have only scraped the surface of genetic engineering. I remember reading somewhere that there is a 60-year cycle from the invention of the technology and the revolutionizing of the world by that technology. We build the first computers and they are giant things that take up whole suites of business building. Now, 60 years later, they have become miniaturized and everyone has one on their watch.
Genetic engineering is not yet 50 years old. At some point in the near future we’ll have a genetic revolution that will be equivalent to the computer revolution. Right now we’re at the stage where transistors are so cheap that you can buy a birthday card that plays music and then throw it away! That will happen with genetic engineering.
SLD: Freeman Dyson delivered a lecture on this very topic. “Freeman Dyson Talks About Biotech vs. Nanotech.”
Anders: Some say this genetic revolution is still 50 to 60 years away. But that is still the 21st century. For the last 40,000 years we have just used plows to till the earth and hit each other with sticks. Then suddenly, in the last couple of hundred years, we are ramping up asymmetrically. So if I don’t see a genetic revolution in my lifetime my children and grandchildren will. That’s still an astronomical leap. I firmly believe that we will not end this century as one human race. We’ve already cracked the genome. Within the next 50 years we will be able to tinker with our own genomes to the point where people will start splicing themselves into whatever they want to be. We will be a multiplicity.”
Michio Kaku, famous physicist and technology evangelist, recently said that 90% of what you see on Star Trek will be real by the end of this century. / (Isn’t it interesting that is the approximate life of one generation 60-70 years? – JWD)
“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” – Max Planck
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